As central bank officials try to thwart the virtual currency, it appears to be having the bitcoin to rubles effect. In this two-article analysis, we’ll look at how the government bans have pushed Bitcoin higher. We’ll also analyze the charts to map out the virtual currency’s next move.
In this article, we’ll look at the reasons central banks and governments want Bitcoin banned and how their efforts are having the opposite effect, whereby their efforts are instead legitimizing virtual currencies. In the second article due out in the next day or so, we’ll analyze the charts and the massive momentum behind Bitcoin and show how the rally may have more legs to it. Please see below to become an “email follower” to have the next article including the charts emailed to you when it’s published. With all the doom and gloom from a few weeks back about Bitcoin, with the Chinese government banning ICOs and shutting down bitcoin exchanges and even Jaimie Dimon was in on the act verbally trashing the cryptocurrency, one would have thought Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were dead. One of the reasons for Bitcoin’s recent rise is the break of its bearish trend line which I highlighted two weeks ago. This break is significant since it deflates the bearish momentum that was prevalent in the market. In other words, traders will be less inclined to short BTC while it trades on the bullish side of the orange trend line.
The second bullish break is the break of the trend line on the RSI momentum indicator. The dark red line connects the highs in RSI’s momentum during Bitcoin’s correction. The fact that RSI is moving higher in tandem with BTC’s price action shows there’s momentum behind the current move. Now we’re hearing rhetoric again of a bubble when just last month, those same people were calling for Bitcoin’s demise. So what happened in two weeks? What’s going on in the market?
There’s a push and pull going on in the cryptocurrency market. On the one hand, we have naysayers in banking and in governments who fear Bitcoin saying it could be the end of the established central banking system. The SEC came out years ago and issued a warning on virtual currencies. The warning encapsulates the fears surrounding Bitcoin and cryptos. We are concerned that the rising use of virtual currencies in the global marketplace may entice fraudsters to lure investors into Ponzi and other schemes. On the other hand, an increasing number of banks and governments are experimenting by investing in blockchain technology.
Morgan Stanley issued a research report on the challenges and the possibilities for implementing blockchain technology into the financial system. Blockchain technology most likely won’t disrupt the financial industry as quickly or as completely as some expect. There are two chief reasons why Bitcoin is being feared by governments and central banks. Bitcoin is a threat to their local currency. Bitcoin could be used for money laundering since it bypasses the anti-money laundering regulations that governments and international banks have in place. Russian authorities have issued their own warning about the dangers with Bitcoin and money laundering. Systems for anonymous payments and cyber currencies that have gained considerable circulation including the most well-known, Bitcoin are money substitutes and cannot be used by individuals or legal entities.
However, the real reason surfaced in the following statement. Russian law stipulates that the ruble is the sole official currency. The reasons for the ban of Bitcoin has nothing to do whether it’s viable or an effective means of transferring money. The ban has more to do with fears of money laundering and fears that a cryptocurrency could interfere with central banks being able to control their currency. Central banks weaken or strengthen their exchange rates through the monetary system.
Governments love to have control over their banking systems, currencies, monetary policies, and their exchange rates. In the cases of China and Russia, these governments want to control capital flows out of their country, since those outflows of capital decrease investment in their home country. Also, outflows weaken their exchange rates. A weaker exchange rate devalues the assets that foreign investors have purchased in their country. The state asset regulator said on Wednesday, that the latest move by Beijing is to tighten controls on money moving out of the country and stabilize a faltering yuan.
For example, if you’re a U. 10B on a plant in China and the currency weakens afterward, any profits earned that have to be sent back to the U. If the yuan weakens against the dollar, it takes more yuan to convert to one dollar. In other words, your profits have decreased based solely on the exchange rate back to dollars.
In short, a weaker exchange rate of a local currency reduces the value of your investments overseas. The fear of a weakening currency has pushed Russian and Chinese investors into Bitcoin. Those who are invested in China and Russia, upon seeing the local exchange rate weaken, want to get their money out fast before they lose any more on the conversion back to dollars. An investor or citizen might fear their local currency may weaken because of an ailing economy, government corruption, economic incompetence, or mismanagement of monetary policy by the central bank. However, those fears have been pushing capital flows into virtual currencies like Ether and Bitcoin, bypassing the controls that the governments have in place to prevent capital outflows.