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The conventional economists assure us that energy is now a small part of the overall economy, so fluctuations in energy prices will have a limited effect on global prosperity. But what’s left of global prosperity when energy is unable to meet current demand at any price that consumers can afford? USD begins to rally, even a little bit, the deflationists come out in full force proclaiming that it’s the start of some major bull market that will blow up the financial system. There simply is no good starting point. You can’t talk about the decline of Rome without a lengthy discussion of how destructive Diocletian’s Edict on Wages and Prices was in the early 4th century. But you’d have to go further back than that and discuss all the lunatic emperors preceding him, all the way back to Caligula. 18- The Reality and Consequences of the U.
Now it’s time to examine the world events surrounding it, and the potential those news brings. Recent trade sanctions against Iran might be the last straw for other countries who’ve tolerated U. Mike Pompeo has already stated the U. The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, inflations and recessions, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. Yet, to listen to some prominent and respected writers on these matters, government has been the stabilizer and free markets have been the disturber of economic order. If you’ve never seen an out-and-out cattle stampede in person, it’s difficult to convey the power and the dynamics that drive it.
First, you get a general sense of restlessness in the herd. Which makes them all more nervous. Then little pockets of cattle will start to lurch, move quickly, but not much, in one direction. They all get skittish, trying to figure out if this is really going to happen or not. You can almost feel the heat rise as the stress levels rise.
Each crisis is bigger than the one before. In complex dynamic systems such as capital markets, risk is an exponential function of system scale. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses. This means that the larger size of the system implies a future global liquidity crisis and market panic far larger than the Panic of 2008. Today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever.
Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the banking system and have much larger derivatives books. 18- Death of the Great Recovery Part 3: Housing Collapse 2. It’s simple math — an equal and opposite reaction. Rising mortgage rates will certainly cause housing sales to fall. Prices will follow for those houses that have to sell because, as mortgage interest rises, people won’t qualify for as large a mortgage as they do now.